You can receive the posts of this weblog by email.
I am predicting Lewis H. to win this - you can still get odds of 1.5 today on Betfair.
Usain B. should win the overseas award equally placed at 1.5
A good chance to turn £10 into £15 there!
I took my Obama winnings (the pot is now somewhere around £33 after a win on Nadal at Wimbledon) and pretty much put the whole lot on Lewis Hamilton to win the BBC Sports Personality of the year mostly at 1.57 although I got £4 at 1.6
I also looked at the Conservatives to win the next election here. I could get about 1.34 but of course this could still take a year to pay off!
Further predictions for the US economy after the elections
ok, bad pun.
This morning i ditched my crappy Nationwide (née Portman) ISA, closing it and opening a Tax Haven ISA with Barclays.
The Tax Haven ISA currently has one of the best interest rates around for a cash ISA (6.25% APR including 1% bonus for first year), and with monthly interest payments. Point of information: the ISA only lasts until the end of the financial year at which point (March/April) one has the choice of starting up a fresh ISA with barclays (at whatever the interest rate might be on the new account) or investing it in another bank.
moneysupermarket is a good guide for rates and terms when checking the current ISA market.
The Chinese Government is rumoured to be discussing land reform in agricultural areas, to enable farmers to have good enough title in the land they currently hold on leases given to families to undertake commercial transactions in agricultural land and thus to pass land use on to others not in the family. This is one of the touchiest subjects in Chinese politics, and hugely symbolic.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-10/09/content_7091961.htm
If the issue is clarified, there is a huge potential for the restructuring of the rather basic rural economy, but there would be millions of losers in such a process as well as millions of winners.
Billions of words have been written about the credit crunch and the ongoing financial situation.
I do not have too much more to add apart from noticing the continued fallout in Share Markets.
I am 'slightly' tempted to come in with the longest postion I can get on the futures market for the FTSE at today's prices.
This would be a March 09 position where I am sure we would be back (at least) to 4800 or 4900 some time before March (and maybe a whole lot sooner than that!)
Today's FTSE showed more movement than a typical month in normal trading times! Down 7% then up 2% and ended down about 6% - this is the equivalent of what used to happen in a (bad) month, but all in the space of a few hours trading.
I think the British Government (for once) did the right thing today and hope that some sort of normality will kick in within a few more days!
Apparently, they haven't got enough money in Iceland to compensate investors and the British taxpayer is having to do so. Here is why:
After banks and nations, Iceland close to bankruptcy
8 Oct 2008, 0933 hrs IST,AP
REYKJAVIK, Iceland: This volcanic island near the Arctic Circle is on the brink of becoming the first "national bankruptcy" of the global financia
l meltdown.
Home to just 320,000 people on a territory the size of Kentucky, Iceland has formidable international reach because of an outsized banking sector that set out with Viking confidence to conquer swaths of the British economy - from fashion retailers to top soccer teams.
The strategy gave Icelanders one of the world's highest per capita incomes. But now they are watching helplessly as their economy implodes - their currency losing almost half its value, and their heavily exposed banks collapsing under the weight of debts incurred by lending in the boom times.
"Everything is closed. We couldn't sell our stock or take money from the bank," said Johann Sigurdsson as he left a branch of Landsbanki in downtown Reykjavik.
The government had earlier announced it had nationalized the bank under emergency laws enacted to deal with the crisis.
"We have been forced to take decisive action to save the country," Prime Minister Geir H. Haarde said of those sweeping new powers that allow the government to take over companies, limit the authority of boards, and call shareholder meetings.
A full-blown collapse of Iceland's financial system would send shock waves across Europe, given the heavy investment by Icelandic banks and companies across the continent.
One of Iceland's biggest companies, retailing investment group Baugur, owns or has stakes in dozens of major European retailers - including enough to make it the largest private company in Britain, where it owns a handful of stores such as the famous toy store Hamley's.
Kaupthing, Iceland's largest bank and one of those whose share trading was suspended last week to stop a huge sell-off, has also invested in European retail groups.
Thousands of Britons have accounts with Icesave, the online arm of Landsbanki that regulators said was likely to file for bankruptcy after it stopped permitting customers to withdraw money from their accounts Tuesday.
To try to wrest control of the spiraling situation, the government also loaned $680m to Kaupthing to tide it over and said it was negotiating a $5.4bn loan from Russia to shore up the nation's finances.
The speed of Iceland's downfall in the week since it announced it was nationalizing Glitnir bank, the country's third largest, caught many by surprise despite warnings that it was the "canary in the coal mine" of the global credit squeeze.
Famous for its cod fishing industry, geysers, moonscape and the Blue Lagoon, Iceland was the site of the Cold War showdown in which Bobby Fischer of the United States defeated Boris Spassky of the Soviet Union in 1972 for the world chess championship. Last year, Iceland won the UN's "best country to live in" poll, with its residents deemed the most contented in the world.
Despite sunny skies on Tuesday after three days of unseasonably cold weather, Reykjavik's mood remained grim - cafes were half-empty, real estate agents sat idle, and retailers reported few sales.
"I'm really starting to get worried now. Everything is bad news. I don't know what's happening," said retiree Helga Jonsdottir as she headed to a supermarket.
Icelanders are also beginning to question how a relative few were able to generate the disproportionate wealth - and associated debt - that Haarde has warned puts the entire country at risk of bankruptcy.
Iceland's reinvention from the poor cousin in Europe to one of the region's wealthiest countries dates to the deregulation of the banking industry and the creation of the domestic stock market in the mid-1990s.
Those free market reforms turned Iceland from a conservative, inward-looking country to one of a new generation of internationally educated young businessmen and women who were determined to give Iceland a modern profile far beyond its fishing base.
Entrepreneurs become its greatest export, as banks and companies marched across Europe and their acquisition wallets were filled by a stock market boom and a well-funded pension system. Among the purchases were the iconic Hamley's toy store and the West Ham soccer team.
Back home, the average family's wealth soared 45 percent in half a decade and gross domestic product rose at around 5 percent a year.
But the whole system was built on a shaky foundation of foreign debt.
The country's top four banks now hold foreign liabilities in excess of $100bn, debts that dwarf Iceland's gross domestic product of $14bn.
Those external liabilities mean the private sector has had great difficulty financing its debts, such as the more than $5.25bn racked up by Kaupthing in five years to help fund British deals.
Iceland is unique "because the sheer size of its financial sector puts it in a vulnerable situation, and its currency has always been seen as a high risk and high yield," said Venla Sipila, a senior economist at Global Insight in London.
The krona is suffering in part from a withdrawal by a falloff in what are called carry trades - where investors borrow cheaply in a country with low rates, such as Japan, and invest in a country where returns, and often risks, are higher.
After watching the free-fall for several days, the Central Bank of Iceland stepped in Tuesday to fix the exchange rate of the currency at 175 - a level equal to 131 krona against the euro.
Haarde said he believed the measures had renewed confidence in the system. He also was critical of the lack of an Europe-wide response to the crisis, saying Iceland had been forced to adopt an "every-country-for-itself" mentality.
He acknowledged that Iceland's financial reputation was likely to suffer from both the crisis and the response despite strong fundamentals such as the fishing industry and clean and renewable energy resources.
As regular Icelanders begin to blame the government and market regulators, Haarde said the banks had been "victims of external circumstances."
Richard Portes of the London Business School agreed, noting the banks were well-capitalized and had not bought any of the toxic debt that has brought down banks elsewhere.
"I believe it is absolutely wrong to say these banks were reckless," said. "Quite the contrary. They were hugely unlucky."
the wonders of youtube:
with shares low now and the rescue package pending, i'll soon be starting a pension in the hope that the shares take off in value over the next 40 years or so.
not such a good time to be drawing a pension though 
Depending on what has happened by the time I wake up tomorrow, I might go for a medium term "buy" of the FTSE index.
Considering it's just dropped 800 points in a week, at the very least it is better value than it was 7 days ago.
The big question is "where exactly is the bottom of this market?"
Of course nobody actually knows the answer to that one, but I think as far as a medium term "buy and hold" is concerned there could be some healthy profits to be made at current levels.
Hopefully there will soon be a re-vote regarding the $700B cash injection into the markets in USA.
I am working on the basis that the motion will be passed the second time around.
If this happens, in some respects it will actually be a better scenario than if the money had been voted through the first time.
I was going to say that perhaps a bit of common sense might return to the Financial Markets, but after the debacle we've seen today I am somewhat doubtful about this.
The Dow climbed nearly 200 today and I'm just reading now on BBC News online that both parties in the US Congress have reached agreement on the basics of a $700bn bail-out plan (according to a leading senator).
This could spark further leaps upwards tomorrow both in the US and here depending on the exact point at which the deal is struck.
Panic buying suddenly kicked in at around 7pm British time. This could mark the beginning of the World recovery. On the other hand, things could remain turbulent for a few more days/months.
I briefly dipped into the market today, buying the index at 4866 and when it had risen to 4992 in 41 minutes I thought it might be a good time to cash in for +£630.
How wrong I was! I could have held on for another hour and made £1300 today!
However, this is not investing, it is gambling and I wouldn't recommend it as profits are liable to be wiped out in minutes.
If I can re-buy in the very low 5000's tomorrow, I might get back in, but it looks like the 'future' price is reckoning on a 150-200 climb in the FTSE almost from the off.
For this reason, I am likely to stay 'out' until the Dow Jones opens on Monday, usually around 14.30 British time.
Is this a good time to buy shares?
I sold everything a few months ago which proved to be the right move. If I'd have held on, I would have lost about 35-40% (instead of being +13% at the point I decided to quit the market).
So, if you are completely "out" at the moment, is it a good time to start getting back "in"?
My answer is a tentative yes, but only if you are prepared to hold shares medium to long term.
The market is incredibly volatile at the moment and could easily shed another 20-30% on the other hand, we may be very near to the bottom of the market right now.
One thing I will say with a moderate amount of certainty though, is that if you can buy at today's closing prices you will see these figures achieved again (and hopefully with some added value) within a small number of months.
What's more difficult is recommending individual shares to buy.
Oil and Gas shares look OK for the moment, though.
What I would tend to do is to 'buy the index'. This is not easy to do unless you are a customer of a company that deals in derivatives.
If you buy the index (or sell it) you are getting the overall trend of the FTSE or the Dow rather than any one individual company (which in today's climate looks more risky than ever).
Dealing in HBOS today was speculation bordering on playing with fire. Of course, some people have made 6- or 7- figure profits in a single day's trading. I guess they will have cracked open the champagne on the news that they will now get £2.32 per share (especially if they bought £1M's worth at 88p today).
I will end today's report there and hope to write another piece soon.
Darling could well be right that we are entering a massive recession, however, he should have kept his mouth shut on this occasion. he has spread a FeelBad factor which is going to have (is already having) serious repercussions for businesses large and small.
Interesting that the story broke after the Stock Market closed on Friday.
Expect around 200 points off the FTSE by Lunchtime on Monday.
Back to lighter issues...
OK, so, I am tipping Obama to win the US election. I put all of my Nadal winnings on this at 1.49 which is still available at Betfair this evening.
The title of my blog describes exactly what happened to a friend of a friend of a friend.
The man (aged about 60) who sold his house for £1M was stitched up a treat by the Estate Agents (who sold it for £2M seven days later) and quite literally couldn't live with himself. He committed suicide.
I am also aware of someone who had the chance to sell his dot com business for £1M (sterling) and ended up selling it for £1 a year later (the buyer had to take on losses as part of the deal).
This person (aged about 35) managed to fight on and has had to build a new business from scratch which just started to look promising, but now we seem to be heading for a huge recession again...
Taking the above into consideration kind of puts a few things into perspective.
i.e. There are more important things in life than money!
Having said that, this is meant to be (mainly) a fun blog group with ideas for making money. I just wanted to put in a bit of balance.
A single person in Britain needs to earn at least £13,400 a year for a minimum standard of living, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) has claimed.
Interesting BBC article about today's cost of living.
I bought HSBC in February for £8.08 and sold them in May at £8.92
In the last few weeks they have fallen all the way back to £7.54 (so lucky I sold).
I have not 'come back in' yet as the market seems wickedly turbulent at the moment.
I would start getting very tempted at around £7.30 as this would mean they'd 'only' need to go back up to about £8 for me to take profits.
There are other attractive 'offers' around, but really it's anyone's guess to where the market will 'settle' and what the real value of these shares is in today's climate.
I am still tipping Marks & Spencer, and British Land as good to 'buy and hold' at today's prices.
All depends on whether one can afford to hold on until prices recover again!
Nadal is the second favourite at Wimbledon (again) this year, but I think he's worth a small position at 3.6 (2.6 to 1) on Betfair.
There's also a bet on a Nadal/Federer final this stands at 2.18 currently (but doesn't look very good value to me!)
Good value shares to buy and hold right now IMHO are M & S £3.42 today British Land £7.43 and HSBC £8.04. I actually sold my HSBC holding about 5 or 6 weeks ago at £8.92 this has seemed like a pretty smart move as I took a neat 12% profit and had I held on this would have been not only completely wiped out, but I would be sitting on a paper loss of a few %.
I think that if you are prepared to buy and hold for up to three years, you should be OK at today's prices.
My own policy is a vey flexible one. I buy to hold medium to long term, but should I see an instant profit (as I made on HSBC in about 3 months) I will take it, 'get out' and continue to follow prices.
Tournament: The Open (known as this rather than the British Open !!!)
I backed this golfer (who won this year's Green Jacket) at 65-1 on Betfair.
Sneakily, I managed to lay off the bet in full at 55-1 !
The bet was for £12 which once I'd sold (or laid off) the bet in full, was returned to me in full £12.
Result. I have my £12 back in full and also the possibility of winning £120 if T.I. wins this tournament!
I'm 22, the current age of retirement for men in the uk is 65. So that gives me 43 years of payments.
the only problem is i really dont know what to look for when shopping around for a personal pension plan.
Should i just talk to different companies, letting them blind me with their figures and projections? Then flip a coin?
Since last Friday i'm up by 43%
However, i've reinvested my assets so i could be down 95% by tomorrow
i took up some small positions on a couple of friendlies being played today and tomorrow. Out of 5 bets i only need to win 2 to break even.
the matches are:
Ivory Coast U20s v USA U20s
Hungary v Greece
Ireland v Serbia
Croatia v Moldova
Ivory Coast v Japan
I looked at the play-off between Bristol City and Hull, but although i think Hull will win the match i think it will be in extra time or penalties so there's little point in backing Hull for the match (i.e. within the 90 minutes) win IMO.
I do believe there's money to be made on the upcoming international competition.
Germany are favourites for the cup (4/1) but the outsider (20/1) to look out for, for me, is the Czech Republic. Greece, who won the competition last time round are at 29/1.
Germany are reliable tournament performers. I wouldn't back them to lift the cup but backing them to the final returns 3.15 and last four 1.7.
Spain, Italy and Portugal follow up with reasonable odds for tournamet progression but a partisan home crowd should not be overlooked. Keep an eye out on Austria and Switzerland - the hosts:
Switzerland are 2.3 to qualify from Group A (a tough group featuring Portugal and the Czechs). Austria are 5.9 to qualify from group B.
Group D is the most interesting for the investor. Greece, Spain, Sweden and Russia is a close group. Sweden are a bloody difficult team to play against, ever the bogey side for England they're 2.26 to qualify for the knock-out stage. Greece fair even better at 2.5, despite winning the tournament previously with a steadfast defence and 5.9 to win the group.
My gut goes with Man U winning (2.64), but my wallet is going to lay Chelsea at 3.3
A £25 free bet for signing up to betfair would pay back in the event of success £82.50.
Nadal won me around £13 by winning the Hamburg masters and I fancied a repeat of this with the French Open, but the odds seem to only be 1.73 - it's almost worth taking the field (i.e. backing Nadal to lose) at 1.75 - in any case, I can't make my mind up and will stay out of that one.
Took a look at the Crewe by-election. CON are now 1.13 - again, not really generous enough odds to come in.
Terrorism Bill is at 1.16 to go through. This is the 28 into 42 days Bill. I'm not really sure how fair a reflection of the real world those odds are. 5.2 for it not to go through.
England are now 11 to win the 1st Test. That's probably worth a tiny £2 position. The draw is at 1.1 which is again, too low to be worthwhile.
My advice is therefore a minimum £2 bet on England to win the First Test. It's not that likely to happen, but you'll be able to dine out on the winnings.
Inflation is officially 3% but it feels to me like 25%.
Everyone is after your money all of the time!
I think I've just found a half-decent value bet on the cricket. England best bowler, I'd take Broad here at 7 (= 6 to 1) we are only talking about a minimum Betfair proposition here which is £2 (I get £14 back including my stake if I win).
I was just about to back CON to win this By-Election with my Man U winnings when I noticed that the odds are a mere 1.2
Sure, they are going to win, but 1.3 would have made it more worth my while!
Betfair usually seems to know what's going on i.e. Obama is now at 1.1 to win the nomination, so I've missed the boat there.
CON to have the most seats at the next election is at 1.52 - this looks like a solid bet to me, but there is a possible 18+ month wait involved!
Man U look a good bet at 2.66 on Betfair for the Champions League final, or seeing as both Chelski and the Reds are finishing the season well 3.15 is very attractive for the draw.
Personally, Man U seem the team to win the Premiership this season (and i'm an Arsenal fan!) but Chelsea at 4.8 raises an eyebrow. The last games of the season are Chelsea at home to Bolton and Man U away at Wigan. Bare in mind that Man U have a goal difference 17 better than Chelsea at the moment with the last game left. How likely does a 9-0 drubbing sound in either of those games really?
