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Archives for: September 2008

The FTSE could be quite good value now!

by Znethru @ 2008-09-29 - 22:18:21

Depending on what has happened by the time I wake up tomorrow, I might go for a medium term "buy" of the FTSE index.

Considering it's just dropped 800 points in a week, at the very least it is better value than it was 7 days ago.

The big question is "where exactly is the bottom of this market?"

Of course nobody actually knows the answer to that one, but I think as far as a medium term "buy and hold" is concerned there could be some healthy profits to be made at current levels.


 
 

A second go for the $700B rescue package.

by Znethru @ 2008-09-29 - 19:22:57

Hopefully there will soon be a re-vote regarding the $700B cash injection into the markets in USA.

I am working on the basis that the motion will be passed the second time around.

If this happens, in some respects it will actually be a better scenario than if the money had been voted through the first time.

I was going to say that perhaps a bit of common sense might return to the Financial Markets, but after the debacle we've seen today I am somewhat doubtful about this.

Modest recovery for the Dow today.

by Znethru @ 2008-09-25 - 22:29:38

The Dow climbed nearly 200 today and I'm just reading now on BBC News online that both parties in the US Congress have reached agreement on the basics of a $700bn bail-out plan (according to a leading senator).

This could spark further leaps upwards tomorrow both in the US and here depending on the exact point at which the deal is struck.

Dow puts on 410

by Znethru @ 2008-09-18 - 21:21:08

Panic buying suddenly kicked in at around 7pm British time. This could mark the beginning of the World recovery. On the other hand, things could remain turbulent for a few more days/months.

I briefly dipped into the market today, buying the index at 4866 and when it had risen to 4992 in 41 minutes I thought it might be a good time to cash in for +£630.

How wrong I was! I could have held on for another hour and made £1300 today!

However, this is not investing, it is gambling and I wouldn't recommend it as profits are liable to be wiped out in minutes.

If I can re-buy in the very low 5000's tomorrow, I might get back in, but it looks like the 'future' price is reckoning on a 150-200 climb in the FTSE almost from the off.

For this reason, I am likely to stay 'out' until the Dow Jones opens on Monday, usually around 14.30 British time.

Dow Jones plunges to 3-year low.

by Znethru @ 2008-09-17 - 22:42:23

Is this a good time to buy shares?

I sold everything a few months ago which proved to be the right move. If I'd have held on, I would have lost about 35-40% (instead of being +13% at the point I decided to quit the market).

So, if you are completely "out" at the moment, is it a good time to start getting back "in"?

My answer is a tentative yes, but only if you are prepared to hold shares medium to long term.

The market is incredibly volatile at the moment and could easily shed another 20-30% on the other hand, we may be very near to the bottom of the market right now.

One thing I will say with a moderate amount of certainty though, is that if you can buy at today's closing prices you will see these figures achieved again (and hopefully with some added value) within a small number of months.

What's more difficult is recommending individual shares to buy.

Oil and Gas shares look OK for the moment, though.

What I would tend to do is to 'buy the index'. This is not easy to do unless you are a customer of a company that deals in derivatives.

If you buy the index (or sell it) you are getting the overall trend of the FTSE or the Dow rather than any one individual company (which in today's climate looks more risky than ever).

Dealing in HBOS today was speculation bordering on playing with fire. Of course, some people have made 6- or 7- figure profits in a single day's trading. I guess they will have cracked open the champagne on the news that they will now get £2.32 per share (especially if they bought £1M's worth at 88p today).

I will end today's report there and hope to write another piece soon.


 
 

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